Coronavirus – Keep Calm and Carry On to Scientific Facts
For whatever reason, the media has reported on the Covid-19 pandemic in a form that has caused mass anxiety and fear which exceeds the lethality of the disease. Is Covid-19 lethal? Yes, but the important questions here are: “What is the degree of lethality of Covid-19?” and “Who are the people at greatest risk?” From its earliest stages, published scientific studies on Covid-19 have revealed that those at the highest risk for severe COVID-19 are the same individuals who are at higher risk for other respiratory infections, namely, the elderly and those with chronic health problems or compromised immune systems. In light of that, it is quite possible to take reasonable precautions to protect those at higher risk of severe disease, while avoiding unwarranted mass panic.
Before going into the details of Covid-19, it is essential to your good health to understand why and how calm plays a fundamental role. The human brain, nervous system and immune system intercommunicate in a very complex exchange referred to as the psychoneuroimmune triad. Our psychological, neurological, and immune systems impact each other in such a way that if one system is unhealthy or overwhelmed, it can impact the functioning of the other two systems. For example, multiple solid published scientific studies have revealed that stress and fear reduce our immune system’s ability to fight infection. The greater our stress, the more susceptible we become to infections. We have all come across the common scenario in which we experienced significant stress, such as taking an exam or facing unexpected burdens and then almost immediately became sick. Therefore, in order to be at our healthiest, a rational approach to this Covid-19 pandemic based upon solid science is fundamental to your health and wellness. Conversely, uncontrolled panic can be dangerous to our health and even lethal. Recently, mass fear has caused some unfortunate people to take proposed remedies which resulted in their death. One media outlet reported that there was a belief in Iran recently that the toxic chemical used for making formaldehyde and other solvents called methanol would protect them from Covid-19. Unfortunately, hundreds of people died from the methanol and scores of people needed hospitalization. Fear needs to be controlled. This is an extreme example but it goes to show that controlling our fears is foundational to our good health.
Here Are Some Helpful Facts to Put Everything in Perspective – These statistics are changing daily but the overall ratios of risk appear to remain constant and are even improving.
Much of the early fear surrounding Covid-19 comes from a British scientist, named Neil Ferguson, who published a report from the Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team where he predicted 2.2 million Americans and 0.5 million British would die from Covid-19. This caused grave concern globally. However, on March 26th, Ferguson significantly downgraded his original death forecasts now estimating that 20,000 British will die instead and perhaps half of those would have died by natural causes without Covid-19. This is a 96 - 98% reduction in his previous dire predictions.
Neil Ferguson’s original large predictions were carried by a website called COVID Act Now which were referenced by many state and government officials globally as their basis for closing businesses resulting is a downturn of the worldwide economy. Throughout this pandemic, the lethality seemingly hasn’t matched the level of fear produced and definitely points to the need for our society to have reliable and trusted sources of verifiable scientific information.
Coronaviruses are a large group of viruses that commonly cause 20 -30% of all upper respiratory diseases in humans.
The SARS pandemic of 2002-2003 lasted 9 months and affected 8,000 people and had a lethality rate of 10% which is much higher than Covid-19 for all but the most elderly (over 80) who also have multiple health problems which increase susceptibility to severe disease.
For perspective, the H1N1 flu pandemic of 2009-2010 had a lethality rate of 18-20% for those over 50 years old which significantly exceeds the lethality of Covid-19.
The earliest published studies on Covid-19 subjects who died reported that the risk was greatest for those who were over 65 and 63% of those older people also had additional health problems.
A Lancet study on Covid-19 observing those who died of Covid-19 initially concluded: “Our results suggest that 2019-nCoV is more likely to infect older adult males with chronic comorbidities (diseases) as a result of the weaker immune function of these patients.”
The above-mentioned Lancet study corresponds to what we have seen so far in the U.S. Studies or analysis of those who have died so far in the U.S. are hard to find for reasons unknown. However, at one point when there were approximately 1,100 confirmed cases in the U.S., there were close to 20 deaths and 12 of those twenty (60%) occurred in one nursing home in Seattle. When the number of cases reached 177,452 in the U.S, the deaths were 3,440 which is still close to the 1-2% death rate range. All deaths are tragic but to help reduce our stress collectively, we need to realize these rates are quite constant and predictable.
Those people who contract Covid-19 over 80 years of age (especially if they have other health problems) have approximately a 14% lethality rate but below 80 years of age, the death rate decreases to between 1 and 4% according to the most recent statistics.
In other words, if you are below 80 years of age and don’t have an immunodeficiency disease or other severe health problems, your chances of recovering from the disease even if you do get it are between 96 and 99%. Therefore, we should place our focus on protecting those elderly with the greatest risk and know that the rest of us have less concern.
The designation of a pandemic does not indicate the severity and is a geographical designation rather than a designation of lethality. Pandemic basically means it now is confirmed in many countries despite efforts to control it. The risk of death did not increase with the designation.
Most countries where Covid-19 was most severe originally, such as China and South Korea, are now reporting fewer new cases.
South Korea, which initially did more testing than any other country, including drive-through tests, is reporting an overall mortality rate today of closer to 0.3 % which is much closer to the annual flu mortality risk. Obviously, these numbers are still unfolding but at this point, the overall mortality trend with proper precautions is improving. (Please know that in some countries, where conditions have been bad, proper precautions were not implemented or were implemented too late.) Despite unscientific media claims, the U.S. under the outstanding direction of Dr. Fauci has been proactive and protective.
A new CDC report states that they believe the death rate is “…probably should consider a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% for COVID-19 case-fatality risk estimates. The higher values could be more appropriate in resource-poor settings..”. The US death rate is estimated to be closer to the lower end if people take appropriate steps as already recommended.
As a physician who has traveled and personally visited hospitals and medical clinics all over the world, I can assure you we have medical care in the U. S. which equals or exceeds other countries for situations like this and the government has responded faster than the previous pandemics noted above. Even if you acquire a severe form of Covid-19, you are in good hands.
More cases will be reported and more deaths will occur but unless the virus mutates, the death risks mentioned above will not worsen to any significant degree and, for a variety of reasons, will most likely decrease. Some evidence indicated that the original virus may have already mutated to a less powerful form before coming to the U.S. but this is still under investigation.
Precautions – What you need to do now.
First, eat a well-balanced diet loaded with a wide variety of phytonutrients, fiber, vitamins, and minerals which will provide your immune system with all the cofactors and nutrients it needs to operate at maximum efficiency. Cofactors are critical components that enhance or even allow the appropriate functioning of the immune system and which the immune system uses up and needs a continuous supply. If you need help with how to do this, we can assist you.
Secondly, unless you have particular medical reasons for food restrictions, this is not the time to be on extreme diets for weight loss. Keto, paleo and some gluten-free diets do not provide the phytonutrients and cofactors your immune system needs and are, in fact, inflammatory. I explain this in greater detail in our Challenge.
Thirdly, this is not the time to megadose on vitamins. As former Medical Director of the largest supplement manufacturer in the world, I am well-versed on this topic. Taking a reasonable multivitamin is good to help assure a balanced intake. However, many megadosing practices involve the consumption of huge amounts of antioxidants which is actually detrimental to immune health. Some oxidation is good but, your immune system uses oxidation to kill germs its after. If you megadose especially with antioxidants, you will neutralize your immune system’s ability to kill germs.
Fourthly, calm down so that you aren’t negatively impacting your immune system as noted above. Our immune systems operate most effectively with reduced stress. If you are having trouble calming down because of the continuous barrage of negative thrown at you, then maybe you should get assistance. If you have a religious faith, now would be the perfect time to actively pursue your faith to get the assistance you need. If not, perhaps you can seek professional counseling. Stress/panic reduction is beneficial.
Follow CDC guidelines on how to protect yourself. Guidelines can be found at this link.
And finally, Keep calm and Carry on. Though this pandemic will be associated with some more hospitalizations and death, the vast majority of us will be fine if we follow the guidelines. Panic never helps. Calm and peace do.
(Updated April 7, 2020)